Just over a year ago, global markets were unsettled by concerns over China’s decelerating growth. Investors focussed on the mounting leverage in the economy. Commodity prices plummeted. Relatively minor (albeit abrupt) changes to the currency basket were viewed as precursors to a devaluation. Many fretted over the declining foreign exchange reserves, and believed that a “hard landing” of the economy was inevitable. 

"Approximately USD 1.7m are lost forever", shared a wealthy entrepreneur with one of our partners. A few weeks earlier his Gmail account was hacked. The intruders had found old wire transfer instructions with the original signature of the account holder in the email archive, modified and resent them to the banks and thereby managed to send multiple large amounts to their offshore accounts. By the time the fraud was discovered the majority of the money was gone beyond recall.

The equity market rally that followed Trump’s election was in our view largely driven by expectations of tax cuts increasing corporate earnings. For the positive momentum to be sustained there needs to be firmer prospects of economic growth gaining traction. It is here that the picture is complex.