The global economy is experiencing a highly-synchronised acceleration of growth.  The expansion is broad based, covering all major economies and regions. Despite the absence of inflationary pressures, the strength of US data has helped affirm the Fed’s monetary tightening trajectory. In Europe, it enabled the ECB to moderate its quantitative easing measures.

The old saying “from shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations” describes the inconvenient fact that family wealth is generally not being passed on beyond grandchildren. Reviewing Forbes’ Billionaires List indeed reveals that about two thirds of the wealthiest families are first generation, only 20% second, and a mere 10% third.

Why is it so difficult to stay wealthy for many generations?

Since November 2016 we have taken the view, that long term interest rates are set to rise. We believed the Trump administration would enact expansionary fiscal policies. With the economy near full employment and wage pressures rising, the stage is set for inflationary expectation to rise. At the same time the Fed’s policy is on a tightening cycle. Taken together all these factors suggested that long term interest rates were bound to rise. Yet, not only has this not happened, but long term rates declined this year.