The divergence between positive economic data and negative policy news is rarely as wide. While the global economy continues to grow at a healthy pace, many of the policy risks we’ve been highlighting have either increased or materialised.  

It is not often that signs of economic strength trigger a market sell-off. Slightly higher than expected wage growth was perceived as presaging significant inflationary pressures, leading to a market correction. Volatility accelerated faster than during the Lehman collapse. Our inboxes were inundated with emails proclaiming various shades of “buy the dip” from banks.

A few weeks ago, a simple altercation between two men on a subway platform escalated to a complete lockdown of London’s busiest shopping district. This incident was a perfect example of how the behaviour of a misinformed crowd can lead to astounding outcomes.